02/07/2020

Dollar lower as risk sentiment improves


GBP

The pound posted an impressive recovery against the dollar yesterday despite there being no fundamental changes in the currency market. Sterling’s appreciation appears to be a technical move resulting from quarter end re-balancing.

Yesterday, EU chief negotiator Barnier rejected the UK’s plan for the City of London’s access into the EU. Barnier said the UK plan would see minimal representation from Europe of businesses based in the UK. He was quoted as saying ‘I will be blunt, it’s proposals are unacceptable, there is no way states or the European Parliament will accept this’. This news heaps more pressure on the pound which is already dealing with an extremely short deadline to agree a Brexit trade deal before the end of 2020.

USD

The USD moved lower during yesterday’s trade owed to a reversal of some safe-haven positions, as optimism grows that a global economic recovery from the coronavirus is underway.

US markit manufacturing activity beat expectations for June, with the manufacturing activity index (ISM) showing business conditions in the manufacturing sector improving by posting it’s highest gain in 14 months. This data, along with similar surveys from the eurozone and China, all point to a recovery which has resulted in a reversal of some safe-haven positioning.

Despite this, investors remain cautious of the growing number of coronavirus infections in the US as further lockdowns will likely threaten the speed at which the US economy recovers from the current pandemic.

Key announcements

13.30 – US – Non-Farm Payrolls
13:30 – USD – Unemployment rate


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